Life expectancy

Doctors conducting the study developed a mathematical model based on what is currently known about the effectiveness of HIV treatment and the factors affecting the prognosis of people with HIV. The model was based on simulated life situations of 10,000 gay men diagnosed with HIV at the age of 30 in 2009.

Their calculations showed that, in ideal circumstances, life expectancy was 78 years.

When someone was diagnosed with HIV in good time (while their immune system was still reasonably healthy) and they started HIV treatment at the time recommended (currently when your CD4 cell count is around 350), average life expectancy was 75 years. This increased to 78 years if the man didn’t smoke.

These calculations assumed that the men stayed in HIV care throughout their lives. It’s very important that you have regular check-ups on your health and how well any treatment you are on is working.

Life expectancy was shorter for those who were diagnosed late (i.e. with a low CD4 count) but was still above 71 years. And HIV treatment was still very effective in these cases.

The researchers estimated that the group was about 50% more likely than people in the general population to develop cardiovascular disease, liver or kidney problems, or cancer.

Therefore, even in ideal circumstances, life expectancy of people with HIV was still poorer than the average UK male life expectancy of 82 years.

Outcomes were calculated for gay men; the researchers suggest that different models need to be developed to calculate the prognosis of other groups affected by HIV.